The business climate indicator (ICA), measured by the IEOM, collapsed in 2024 amid a major crisis in the nickel sector, followed by unprecedented insurrectionary riots that affected the territory starting on 13thMay. It fell below the previous low recorded during the health crisis in 2020. Despite a slight rebound in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2024, the ICA did not manage to regain this previous level.
Numerous indicators reflect this shock of unprecedented magnitude for the Caledonian economy. Private employment has contracted by about 20% since the peak of the 3rd quarter of 2023 (nearly 13,000 jobs are estimated to have been destroyed according to the ISEE).
Household consumption, resilient in recent years, has slowed down : card payments and withdrawals decreased by 8% in 2024. Banking activity has also been profoundly affected as total credit production (excluding overdrafts) plummeted by 49% in 2024, even though central bank interest rates were trending downwards.
Sectoral situations also appear to be very degraded. The nickel sector was already facing a major crisis at the beginning of the year : in a context of falling nickel prices in international markets, industrial shareholders announced at the end of 2023 their intention to stop financing their metallurgical plants in the territory. After Glencore’s announced withdrawal in February 2024, the productive activity of the Northern plant was halted, awaiting a potential buyer. The riots subsequently crystallized the difficulties in the sector. Blockades and destruction at mining sites directly threatened the supply of ores to the metallurgical plants as well as their survival : the Southern plant (Prony) halted its activity between May and November 2024, while the SLN operated at a reduced capacity to preserve the integrity of its production apparatus.
Activity in the construction sector collapsed in 2024, while the outlook for 2025 remains very pessimistic. The primary sector, recently faced with exceptional rainfall, had to deal with major difficulties in marketing its production due to the riots.
Only the tourism sector saw a modest recovery at the end of the year with a timid return of cruise passengers to the territory, still far from the levels recorded in 2023. All interviewe d business leaders agree on the lack of perspectives for the coming year.